Throughout 2015, the majority of regional airlines in the United States finally began to experience the burden and stress of a long-predicted pilot shortage in earnest, and it will likely continue to be front and center for many years to come. The sooner that the airline industry as a whole comes to grips with the realities that they are facing (as well as ignoring), the better off the industry will be for both existing pilots and, more importantly, for the well-informed pilots of the future who will expect to see significant changes in the way that things are done, from both a training and recruiting perspective, as well an operational and managerial one. Without these improvements, the airline industry will experience real turmoil like never before, and they will certainly not ever see a dramatic increase in new pilot certifications / applications that ultimately may help to fulfill the near 100,000 positions that are foretasted to become available in the next twenty years. These are staggering figures for the airline industry. The regional airlines are hemorrhaging pilots like never before.
Amidst all of the recruitment hype and 'quality of life' propaganda, and the 'sunshine pumps' that the regional airlines' recruiters so fondly spew in order to market and differentiate themselves to aspiring airline pilots / prospects these days, I often stumble across important, valuable pieces of information and reminders of events from the past that have shaped the industry to become what it will be in 2016 and beyond. For both newcomers and veterans to the aviation industry, it's essential to acknowledge incidents from the past, both good and bad, in order to have a comprehensive perspective of how a once great industry has become one full of struggle, strife and union inaction for those of us still fighting (and flying) in the arena today. One that a younger generation has very little interest in becoming a part of, and for good reasons. One such example came from the Families of Continental Flight 3407 website that was created in 2010 in the wake of the tragic crash of flight 3407, operated by Pinnacle Airlines' Colgan Air unit. Pinnacle has since passed through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, and 're-branded' itself as Endeavor Air, but the lessons learned and the price that has been paid since that fateful day have been very bitter pills to swallow for all of the regional airlines and the industry as a whole because of the operating requirements (and burdens) that have been enacted on behalf of airline pilots, i.e. Part 117 Crew Rest regulations. One of the more ardent and outspoken supporters of the Families of Continental Flight 3407 group is Captain Chesley"Sully" Sullenberger, a retired, 30-year airline captain and aviation safety consultant who was (and always will be) hailed as a national hero when he successfully executed an emergency water landing of US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson River off New York City, after his A320 aircraft was disabled when it struck a flock of geese during its initial climb out from LaGuardia Airport on January 15, 2009. Miraculously, all 155 passengers and crew aboard the aircraft survived. Today, Sullenberger is an international speaker on airline safety and has helped to develop new protocols for airline crew safety training throughout the industry. Recently, he was hired by CBS News as an Aviation and Safety Expert, but his relentless, selfless support and efforts on behalf of the Families of Continental Flight 3407 have been essential to pushing federal lawmakers to fundamentally change the ways that airlines operate and, most importantly, schedule their pilots, placing safety directly ahead of profits, where it must be. The code sharing / regional airline partner 'matrix,' and the lack of safety and accountability that evolved from the business model that was so widely and hastily adopted by the major airlines since 9-11, all have morphed to become the cancer of an industry that has knowingly painted itself into the predicament that the airlines find themselves in today-- A very rotten, festering business model that simply doesn't work anymore, and, amazingly, they are finally acknowledging it, albeit in a painfully slow, illogical manner. The following quote comes from the Families of Continental Flight 3807 website: "We said it then and we will say it again; a code share agreement is not an excuse for a parent carrier to turn a blind eye to what is happening with its regional partners, and even worse, to point the finger at the FAA when something goes wrong," stated John Kausner of Clarence Center, New York, who lost his twenty-four year old daughter Ellyce in the crash of Flight 3407 in February 2009. "Maybe (former United Airlines CEO) Jeff Smisek thinks that his job isn't safety, but as Captain Sullenberger said at the recent House safety round-table, "The major airlines have been able to avoid liability for the actions of their regional affiliates, but they cannot evade responsibility for them." The roots of all that went wrong with Colgan Air Flight 3407 can be traced back decades to the evolution of a horrible industry model: parent carriers outsourcing to regional airlines, and then looking the other way as the regionals hired low-experience pilots for next to nothing and then trained them on the cheap. Our aviation system is only as strong as its weakest link, and we continue to call on Mr. Smisek and his fellow industry leaders to be zeroed in on the Great Lakes Airlines of the world; this is where the next needless tragedy is likely to occur if we do not remain vigilant." Well said, Captain Sullenberger, well said indeed, The major airlines have been able to avoid accountability for their regional affiliates and the stone age, turbo-prop era contracts that they burden them all with, and until those are improved / re-negotiated, things will not change., As pilots and, most importantly, as professionals, we must ALL remain vigilant or the industry and our profession will never progress.. Positive change is the last hope that we as pilots have. Let's hope that 2016 becomes that change for the long-term.
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Earlier today, I came across this simple but precise infographic that summarizes the regional airline pilot shortage crisis underway (via @TravelWeekly magazine). I encourage you to read the entire article, which is extremely well-written and includes input and quotes from experts throughout the industry. “It’s a crisis that is exploding right now,” said Dan Akins from Flightpath Economics. “It’s not going to get better. It’s going to get worse. It’s almost a contagion.” Throughout 2015, regional carriers in the the United States were essentially forced into the awkward (and inconvenient) position of raising their starting pay rates, along with offering aggressive incentives for new hires / first officers that were unheard of before. All of this became necessary in order for each regional airline to remain competitive amongst their counterparts and, most importantly, to fulfill their ongoing service agreements with their mainline contract partners. There really hasn't been a shortage of pilots, just a pilot pay shortage, and this is becoming more and more apparent in the way that they attempt to 'recruit' new and veteran pilots.
This is a significant shift for both the regionals and their mainline carriers because it finally applies pressure to their operations where it really hurts and essentially bruises their thin bottom lines in the future. If the regional / 121 carriers aren't considered a viable or competitive option for pilots seeking new career opportunities, they will simply go elsewhere, such as higher paying 135 operators, who are also feeling the pinch in pilot recruitment that became readily apparent in 2015. What all of this means for pilots is that the 'tables have truly started to turn,' and the future for new or aspiring pilots is significantly brighter (and valuable) for 2016 and beyond, but the regional carriers are seriously in the midst of recruitment battles for new hires, from partnerships with flight schools to aggressively poaching pilots from other 121 and 91/135 carriers. While starting pay and basic benefits (medical/dental/401k/etc) are certainly a big part of the equation in evaluating the attractiveness of a regional airline for a pilot, new incentives and signing bonuses offered by 121 carriers have become much more common over the latter part of 2015, all in hopes of catching prospects' eyes with financial and quality of life perks (hotels for commuters, etc) that go far beyond a higher starting salary. Some concrete examples of these incentives (via management's desperation) include GoJet Airlines offering a $15,000 signing bonus with no training contract for CRJ type-rated pilots, and others, such as Mesa Airlines, who has reluctantly offered its own employees a $10,000 referral bonus for pilots hired that complete training and IOE with the company. Others, such as Endeavor and Envoy, are heavily promoting their 'flow through' agreements with Delta and American Airlines, respectively, which 'guarantees' a pilot will (eventually, after several years) receive an offer to interview and potentially fly for their mainline partners. Of course, there are strings are attached to these flow-through and signing bonuses being dangled to prospects, but they are an obvious indication that the regional carriers have finally recognized and acknowledged that they have to offer far more in order to maintain a full roster of trainees to replace the hemorrhaging losses of pilots to the mainline carriers (United, Delta, American, Southwest, Frontier, JetBlue and others) who will be hiring 100+ pilots per month throughout 2016 and beyond. This is certainly an exciting time for pilots who may considering a career in the 121 industry, but it is also a very concerning time as it relates to the overall stability and long-term operational viability of the regional carriers who are offering higher pay rates and incentives that were not initially calculated in to their current operating contracts with their mainline partners. A recent example of this can be seen with Republic Airways management agreeing to DOUBLE starting pay for its new hires, amongst other significant, costly improvements to their recently ratified tentative agreement (TA) in the Fall of 2015. Tougher work rules and increasing costs for pilot training have also caused the supply of new pilots willing to work for meager regional airline wages to dry up. Meanwhile, major airlines are raiding the regional airline pilot ranks in order to replace a huge wave of their own retiring pilots and to comply with new Part 117 crew-rest regulations. Regional airlines are simply unable to raise pilots' salaries to a level that would attract new pilots while they continue to operate for contracted rates that were negotiated many years ago (at turboprop pricing) with their mainline carrier 'partners.' Recently, Delta Air Lines filed a lawsuit against its 'regional' affiliate, Republic, because Republic cancelled too many flights in 2015 due to the pilot shortage and ongoing recruitment issues it has experienced. The irony of this situation is certainly rich here. Take a look at my previous blog post to learn more about the hypocrisy and greed that Delta displays, as it continues to turn a blind eye to the realities in the industry amidst record operating profits. I also encourage you to read more about the aforementioned Republic Airways scenario to understand that its new TA with their pilots certainly 'Could Save Republic Airways, but it Doesn't Guarantee Success.' Expect to see much more of this in 2016 as other regional carriers feel the pain of operational shortcomings due to inaction, stubbornness, and ineptitude of their management and C-suite executives. Throughout 2016, I'll be discussing much more about these contractual issues and the regional airlines inability to re-negotiate their operating agreements with their mainline partners, which is essentially causing the overall issue to fester and, believe me, this will eventually come to haunt the major carriers (and ALPA) who have created this monster of a FAILING and outdated business model. The tables have finally turned, pilot lives do matter : ) |
Author:The Pilot Liberator is a former corporate pilot (Part 135 & 91) and a current ATP-rated airline pilot (Part 121) for a well-known carrier in the United States. Archives:
March 2018
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